Zhou Laojiao (000568) 2019 Interim Review: Guojiao 1573 and special song series led to growth and maintained buy
Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report with revenue of 80 in 19H1.
1.3 billion, an annual increase of 24.
81%, net profit attributable to mother 27.
5 billion, an annual growth of 40%, net cash flow from operating activities.
07 billion, an annual increase of 316%.
Among them, 19Q2 revenue was 38.
4.4 billion, an annual increase of 26%, net profit attributable to mothers12.
3.5 billion, an increase of 36% over the same period. We forecast the company ‘s 19Q2 revenue and return to net profit at 25% and 33%, respectively. The company ‘s performance growth is slightly better than our expectations.
Investment Ratings and Estimates: Maintain earnings forecasts and forecast EPS for 2019-2021.
18 yuan, 4.
02 yuan, 4.
85 yuan, an annual increase of 34%, 27%, 21%, the current corresponding PE is 28x, 22x, 18x, respectively, maintain Buy rating.
We believe that Luzhou Laojiao is one of the companies whose fundamentals have changed substantially during the current cycle of the industry. The company has re-established an alternative channel model and sales system in the past 3 years, clearly sorting out the five orders covering high, middle and low.Product matrix, and continue to focus on building the brand strength of the dual brand of Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao.
In 2018, the company proactively adjusted the layout on the channel in advance. At present, the channel control has significantly improved. The volume of Guojiao 1573 in high-end wine has exceeded the previous high. The current price and inventory average prices are benign.In the 60th edition, middle-to-high-priced products such as cellar wine and time-honored special songs can also be deployed and grow steadily.
In the context of the industry’s squeezed competition, the company has the ability to grasp the industry’s potential and achieve healthy, sustainable, and rapid growth.
The national cellar 1573 and special song 60 maintained high growth, and the product structure continued to improve.
19H1 premium wine cellar 1573 revenue 43.
1.3 billion, an annual increase of 30.
47%, 54% are premium wines.
45%, the proportion increased by 2.
Two single, we expect the growth in premium wine revenue to be mainly contributed by sales.
Mid-range wine specials and cellar revenue 22.
2.3 billion, an increase of 35 in ten years.
14%, accounting for 28.
07%, the proportion increased by 2.
06 highest, it is expected that the special song, especially the special song 60 accelerated acceleration growth, storage wine is still being adjusted.
Low-grade wine 13.
8.4 billion, an increase of 0 in ten years.
68%, the short-term growth rate is mainly due to the company continued to reduce the bar code of low-end wine development products while increasing product prices.
The proportion of high-end products in 19H1 increased by 4 units, and the product structure was further improved. Guojiao 1573 and Special Qu 60 maintained high growth, and the growth momentum remained strong.
From August 21, the price of Guojiao 1573 will be implemented according to the plan, and the price will be increased by 30 yuan per bottle. At present, the price of Guojiao 1573 batches is 760 yuan to 790 yuan, and some areas have reached 800 yuan or more, maintaining an upward trend, and combining channel feedbackIt is expected that the progress of the repayment of Guojiao 1573 will be fast, and the growth trend will continue in the second half of the year.
The gross profit margin and net profit margin increased, and the expense structure was further optimized.
19H1 net margin 34.
69%, an increase of 2 a year.
With an average of 98, the increase in net profit margin was mainly due to the increase in gross profit margin and the decrease in management expense ratio.
19H1 gross profit margin 79.
7%, an increase of 4 per year.
79 averages, of which the gross margin of premium wines is 91.61% increase to 0.
53 averages, 82 gross wine margins.
57% increase by 5.
03 average, low-grade wine gross margin of 38.
85% up 6.
58 points, the main reasons for the increase in gross profit margin: 1, price increases of some products; 2, cost reduction; 3, adjustment of low-end wine tax calculation methods; 4, product structure improvement.
The tax rate is 12.
82%, increase by 1 every year.
6 units, the main reasons for the increase in tax rate: 1, the impact of tax payment point; 2, adjustment of low-end products tax calculation method.
Selling expense ratio 19.
2%, a year to raise 0.
64 units. In 19, the company further optimized the cost release and invested more in brand and end-user construction. The cost rate will remain relatively stable and the cost-effectiveness ratio will increase.
Management expense ratio (including R & D expenses) 4.
53%, down 1 percentage point in the past.
In 19Q2, the operating cash flow increased, taking into account changes in advance receipts to accelerate the growth of income.
2Q19 Net cash flow from operating activities.
4.6 billion, compared with 0 in the same period last 上海夜网论坛 year.
6.1 billion, a substantial increase in net cash flow.
Among them, cash received from the sale of goods and labor services39.
9.4 billion, an increase of 54 in ten years.
At 16%, the growth rate of cash flow was significantly faster than the growth rate of revenue.
600 million, down 2 from the previous month.
8.8 billion, a year-on-year increase in bills receivable by 6 over the same period last year.
7.4 billion, advance accounts received at the end of the second quarter of 1913.
9.2 billion, an increase of 1.
0.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease in advance receipts 2 over the same period last year.
9.4 billion, taking into account changes in advance receipts, revenue in 19Q2 increased 41%, the growth further accelerated.
The Most Expressive Catalyst: Performance Exceeds Expectations Core Assumption Risk: Economic Downturn Affects Demand for High-end Liquor