Bohai Ferry (603167): High profit and stable dividends and repurchase increase value
This report reads: The mature and stable ferry market will provide stable profits, and high dividends and repurchases will enhance the value of stock investment.
Investment Highlights: Increase earnings forecasts and target prices, and maintain a “cautious increase” rating.
The stability of supply and demand in the Bohai Bay ferry market will keep the profit stable, while increasing the dividend ratio and large repurchases will increase the value of stock investment.
Increase EPS forecast for 2019-21 to 0.
85 yuan (the original forecast for 2019-20 is 0.
Based on the DCF and PE estimates, raise the target price to 11.
6 yuan (originally 10.
49 yuan), maintaining a “cautious overweight rating.”
Fuel subsidies and investment gains boosted profits beyond expectations.
The sharp rise in fuel prices in 2018 has led to an increase in the profit of ferry’s main business.
However, fuel subsidies increased by 27 million yuan, investment income from wealth management products increased by 40 million yuan, and the loss of cruise business increased gross profit by 40 million yuan, driving the overall profit to exceed expectations.
Considering the uncertainty of fuel supplements, investment cash can increase, and we believe the company’s future earnings will remain stable.
Develop cargo and international passenger rolls to alleviate excess capacity.
Market size Bohai Ferry’s delivery of three Ro-Ro ships may cause excess capacity.
We believe that the development of Bohai Ferry’s rolling cargo transportation will attract dangerous chemicals, drop-and-hook transportation vehicles; the development of international passenger rolling transportation will divert some of the transportation capacity.
Supply and demand in the Bohai Bay passenger transport market will be basically balanced, and 杭州桑拿 freight rates are expected to stabilize.
High dividends and repurchases increase stock investment value.
In 2018, the proportion of dividends was increased to 72%, and high dividends reduced the reinvestment risk of retained profits.
Based on the repurchase of 8-2 million US dollars of own funds, the company intends to issue convertible bonds to raise 5 million US dollars for repurchase, which is expected to promote the return of value.
The added value of fuel surpassed expectations, and the relaxation of the super-supervision led to an increase in car ferry traffic. The advancement of passenger roaming vessels caused asset impairment losses. The added value of cruise business increased, and the RMB exchange rate continued to increase and decrease.Transport needs.