Bohai Ferry (603167): High profit and stable dividends and repurchase increase value

Bohai Ferry (603167): High profit and stable dividends and repurchase increase value

This report reads: The mature and stable ferry market will provide stable profits, and high dividends and repurchases will enhance the value of stock investment.

Investment Highlights: Increase earnings forecasts and target prices, and maintain a “cautious increase” rating.

The stability of supply and demand in the Bohai Bay ferry market will keep the profit stable, while increasing the dividend ratio and large repurchases will increase the value of stock investment.

Increase EPS forecast for 2019-21 to 0.



85 yuan (the original forecast for 2019-20 is 0.


75 yuan).

Based on the DCF and PE estimates, raise the target price to 11.

6 yuan (originally 10.

49 yuan), maintaining a “cautious overweight rating.”

Fuel subsidies and investment gains boosted profits beyond expectations.

The sharp rise in fuel prices in 2018 has led to an increase in the profit of ferry’s main business.

However, fuel subsidies increased by 27 million yuan, investment income from wealth management products increased by 40 million yuan, and the loss of cruise business increased gross profit by 40 million yuan, driving the overall profit to exceed expectations.

Considering the uncertainty of fuel supplements, investment cash can increase, and we believe the company’s future earnings will remain stable.

Develop cargo and international passenger rolls to alleviate excess capacity.

Market size Bohai Ferry’s delivery of three Ro-Ro ships may cause excess capacity.

We believe that the development of Bohai Ferry’s rolling cargo transportation will attract dangerous chemicals, drop-and-hook transportation vehicles; the development of international passenger rolling transportation will divert some of the transportation capacity.

Supply and demand in the Bohai Bay passenger transport market will be basically balanced, and 杭州桑拿 freight rates are expected to stabilize.

High dividends and repurchases increase stock investment value.

In 2018, the proportion of dividends was increased to 72%, and high dividends reduced the reinvestment risk of retained profits.

at 1.

Based on the repurchase of 8-2 million US dollars of own funds, the company intends to issue convertible bonds to raise 5 million US dollars for repurchase, which is expected to promote the return of value.

risk warning.

The added value of fuel surpassed expectations, and the relaxation of the super-supervision led to an increase in car ferry traffic. The advancement of passenger roaming vessels caused asset impairment losses. The added value of cruise business increased, and the RMB exchange rate continued to increase and decrease.Transport needs.


Tiankang Biological (002100): Double growth in profit of farmed vaccines, high flexibility and high performance

Tiankang Biological (002100): Double growth in profit of farmed vaccines, high flexibility and high performance

The company released the 2019 performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 will be 6?
7 billion, an increase of 91 in ten years.



1. Rising pig prices are driving profitability forward. It is expected that the profit of a single pig will be 500?
600 yuan.

The number of pigs slaughtered in 2019 is 84.

270,000 heads, an increase of 30 in ten years.

33%; affected by rising pig prices, the hog breeding sector revenue was 15.

10,000 yuan, an increase of 110 in ten years.


Due to its obvious location advantages, the company is far away from the severely affected areas of the epidemic, the breeding density is low, and the dry and dry climate effectively reduces the virus transmission. At present, the company’s full cost control in 成都桑拿网 Xinjiang is 12?
13 yuan / kg, it is estimated that the company’s single pig profit will be 500 in 2019?
600 yuan, stronger profitability.

2. Animal vaccines: The profitability of vaccines for poultry grows, and sales of vaccines for pigs are expected to pick up.

Benefiting from the high prosperity of the meat and poultry breeding industry and the surge in breeding volume, the company’s poultry vaccine business has seen a profitable growth growth. It is expected that the poultry seedling business will contribute 0 net profit in 2019.

5 billion.

As the price of pigs has risen to a high level, the industry has become more enthusiastic about replenishing pens, and sales of vaccines for pigs have promoted recovery.

The vaccine business is expected to contribute 1 in 2019.

500 million or more.

3. Test the 成都桑拿网 performance cashing era is coming. The company has both high flexibility and strong cashing performance.

Affected by the swine fever in Africa, the domestic pig breeding industry has expanded on a large scale, soaring pig prices and continuing high levels in the next 2-3 years.

The development and marketing of non-plague vaccines has a long way to go. In this context, the improvement of the industry’s prevention and control capabilities has an impact on epidemic prevention and control and capacity repair.

The test results of the pig breeding sector are coming. The company with obvious prevention and control advantages is sufficient to guarantee the production of live pigs, and the performance performance is stronger. It is estimated that the company ‘s live pigs will be 1.8 million / 2.4 million heads in 2020/2021.The volume will increase more than doubled every year in 2019, and it will have both performance and flexibility.

Profit forecast: It is estimated that the number of pigs slaughtered by the company in 2019/2020/2021 will be 840,000 / 1.8 million / 2.4 million, and the company’s pig vaccine and feed business will promote warming.Net profit was 6.



3.1 billion, the corresponding EPS is 0.




It is expected that the hog breeding business will contribute a net profit of 19 in 2020?
2 billion, vaccine contributed 200 million profit, and feed business contributed 100 million, respectively to the breeding business, feed business, vaccine business 10X / 10X / 20X PE, the segment estimation method predicts the company’s total market value target of 24 billion in 2020, growth space84.

62% with a BUY rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

Sudden major epidemic risk: Large-scale epidemics such as African swine fever or avian influenza will occur during the livestock breeding process, which will result in the death of livestock and livestock, distorting the consumer psychology of most people, shrinking market demand, and affecting industries and relatedProfitability of the business.

The price is lower than expected risk: The price of livestock and poultry meat rises or falls more than the cost increase, which affects the profitability of the industry and related companies, and there is a risk that future performance will not continue to grow or even decline.


Raw material price fluctuation risk: The output and price of the main raw materials and agricultural products used by the company’s production and operation are affected by uncontrollable factors such as weather and market conditions. If the price of main raw materials changes in the future, it will affect the profitability of the industry and related companies.
4. Listing of non-pestemic vaccines: The effective listing of non-pestetic vaccines can fundamentally eliminate the spread of non-influenza epidemics, a large number of dechemicalization progress will be disrupted, and pig prices may not rise as expected.


Jingwang Electronics (603228): The downstream application market is weakening, waiting for the industry to pick up

Jingwang Electronics (603228): The downstream application market is weakening, waiting for the industry to pick up

Event: The company released the third quarter report of 2019, and the first three quarters of 2019 achieved revenue of 45.

35 ppm, a 24 year increase.

52%, net profit attributable to mother 6.

31 ppm, an increase of 0 in ten years.


Analysis and judgment: The market demand is weakening, and product prices are under pressure. The increase in revenue in the first three quarters of 2019 is mainly due to the release of production capacity of the Jiangxi Jingwang Phase II project and the increase in revenue of Jingwang Flexible.

83 yuan, an annual increase of 23.

12%, net profit attributable to mother 2.

04 million, down 13 each year.


Q3 single quarter gross margin was 25.

67%, a decline of 6 per year.

4 averages, down 1 from the previous month.

66 units.

The company’s products are divided into three main categories: rigid board, flexible board, and metal substrate. The downstream applications mainly include mobile phones, automobiles, industrial, medical, and communications.

Looking at the mobile phone market, IDC expects global smartphone sales in 201913.

700 million units, ten years away2.

2%; data from the China Academy of Information and Communication Technology, from January to September 2019, the number of smartphones implanted in China2.

7.5 billion units, down 4 previously.

Looking at the automotive market, according to the German Automotive Research Center, global car sales in 2019 are expected to be 79.5 million units, each replacing 5%; according to data from the China Automobile Association, from January to September 2019, China ‘s auto sales were 18.37 millionWhile falling by 10.


We judge that due to the weaker downstream demand and the continuous expansion of internal PCB companies, intensified competition in the industry has led to falling product prices, lowering the company’s gross profit margin and affecting Q3 profitability.

The logic of shifting global PCB production capacity to mainland China is still looking forward to the rebound in the industry. According to Prismark statistics, the global PCB output value in 2018 is about 623.

USD 9.6 billion, of which China’s PCB output value is 327.

US $ 2 billion, is already the world’s main PCB production place.

Prismark predicts that the average annual composite production value of global PCB output value will be 3 in 2018-2023.

7%, 5G commercial, Internet of Things, automotive electronics, industry 4.

0, cloud server, memory, etc. will become the new driving force for the growth of PCB. It is estimated that the global PCB output value will reach 747 in 2023.

US $ 5.6 billion, of which China’s PCB output value will account for 54% of the global market.


According to the China Electronic Circuit Ranking released by CPCA, the company ranked 9th in the comprehensive PCB enterprise rankings in 2018 and 2nd in the domestic PCB private enterprises rankings.

According to N.


The top 100 PCB manufacturers in the world released by the information. From 2015 to 2018, the company ranked 34th, 32th, 31st and 25th among the top 100 PCB suppliers in the world, and the ranking kept rising.

We believe that in the future, with the implementation of 5G infrastructure construction, the penetration of 5G mobile phones, the development of automobiles toward electrification, networking, intelligence, and sharing, and the upgrade of automotive electronics rates will drive the PCB manufacturing industry to achieve a cyclical business cycle.

Investment advice do we expect the company 2019?
In 2021, the net return to mothers is 9 respectively.

4.5 billion, 13.
1.5 billion, 16.
66 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 1.

57 yuan, 2.

18 yuan, 2.

77 yuan.

Reference Shenwan Printed Circuit Board Index In the past two years, the PE (TTM) is about 42 times. Since the company went public in 2017, the average PE (TTM) is 32 times, and the change range is 25 times.
42 times.

Maintain target price of 65.

4 yuan, equivalent to 30 times PE in 2020, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risks suggest macroeconomic downturn, systemic risk; raw material price risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; increased competition in the industry.


Bromeco (603727) Research Briefing: International Oil Prices Stabilize and Rise, Company Performance Advances to Bottom Bounce

Bromeco (603727) Research Briefing: International Oil Prices Stabilize and Rise, Company Performance Advances to Bottom Bounce

Investment points: The company is a professional module EPC service company focusing on the international market. 1) The company is a professional module EPC service company focusing on the international market. It is committed to various types of modules mainly in offshore oil and gas engineering, LNG plants and mining.Design and integrated construction to provide services to international high-end energy and mining customers. Most of the company’s business comes from international customers, covering the Middle East, North America, Russia, the United States, Africa, South America, Singapore, Singapore and other countries and regions, covering most of the worldAreas rich in oil and gas resources.

2) The company’s main business areas include the upper module of offshore oil development (including FPSO), design, acquisition, construction and project management of oil and gas / mining ground cracks, as well as on-site connection, commissioning and after-sales service of products in the above fields.

3) In terms of financial data, the company’s revenue in the first three quarters of 2018 and net profit attributable to its mother were 1, respectively.

85 / -0.

30 trillion, down 54 a year.

47% / 138.

50%, our analysis is basically due to the sluggish international oil and gas prices and the final drop in demand from downstream customers. The international oil price has stabilized and rebounded, and the company ‘s performance is expected to bottom out.Combined effects, international oil prices have started to rise since June 2017, and the average monthly price of Brent crude oil in February 2019 was 64.

04 USD / barrel, which has reached about two in early 2016. After oil prices have stabilized and rebounded, many projects have reached the standards for investment and development based on previous feasibility studies, and the capital expansion of the industry has gradually become active., Mobil, Shell, ConocoPhillips, etc. have increased investment and mining efforts.

2) Against the background of rising international oil prices, the company’s bidding projects have increased significantly. In August 2018, the company’s continued follow-up of the Petrobras FP30 Carioca MV30 project for the construction of the upper module of the contract won a contract amount of about 5.

7.3 billion yuan.

3) In terms of mining, the company successfully mined BHP Billiton’s iron ore project order in southern Australia. The contract value of the project is about 3.

7.5 billion yuan.

4) In terms of natural gas liquefaction, the company successfully won the AGPP Amur Steelwork project, which has a total contract value of 1.

1.3 billion U.S. dollars for Gazprom in order to guarantee the supply of commercial natural gas for the Sino-Russian Natural Gas Supply Agreement (East Line).

5) The company actively participates in the construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative, exploring new business models such as joint general contracting, equity investment, and capital construction. The gradual landing of related projects will help accelerate the company’s performance.

Earnings forecast, the first coverage is given an “overweight” rating. We believe that the company, as an offshore oil and gas professional module EPC service company, is committed to benefiting from the steady recovery of oil prices. At the same time, the company is accelerating the layout of the “Belt and Road” related businesses. The development prospects are worth looking forward to.

We expect the company to achieve operating income in 2018-20.



06 million, a half-year increase of -33.

25% / 372.

81% / 68.

82%, net profit attributable to mother was 0.



30,000 yuan, a ten-year growth of -91.

04% / 1011.

77% / 85.

71%, corresponding EPS is 0.



87 yuan / share, the first coverage given to “overweight” grade.

Risk warnings: Oil price recovery is lower than expected; original price increase risk; international 青岛夜网 business advancement is lower than expected.


Spring Airlines (601021) Interim Review: Increased Revenue, Leading Industry, Maintaining Buy

Spring Airlines (601021) Interim Review: Increased Revenue, Leading Industry, Maintaining “Buy”

Block-km revenue (block revenue) improves the industry’s leading position, dragged down by the decrease in subsidy revenue, and the performance is gradually expected to be 71 in the first half of 2019.

500 million, an increase of 12.

9%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

500 million, an increase of 17.


Net profit attributable to mother is higher than our democratic forecast (RMB 9.

300 million) low 7.

8%, mainly due to the current route subsidy3.

1 billion, down from 0 previously.

700 million.

During the reporting period, the company recorded a rise in both volume and price, the growth of revenue levels maintained, and the cultivation of bases went smoothly, thus highlighting aviation demand.

Optimistic about the company’s ability to resist interference and disturbance, and based on the semi-annual report results, we adjusted the company’s 2019E / 20E / 21E return to the net profit of the mother to 20.



300 million, the updated target price range is 52.


24 yuan, maintain “buy”.

Both volume and price rose in the first half of 2019, with a 3% increase in revenue.

4% In the first half of 2019, against the backdrop of unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, Spring Airlines registered volume and price increases, reflecting the increase in aviation demand.

In terms of capacity, the company introduced a total of 5 aircrafts in the first half of 2019, and replaced them by 0 every hour.

7%, the overall ASK increased by 9.

3%, the flight structure is balanced, domestic and international ASK increase by 8 respectively.

9% / 8.

8%; overall RPK increased by 12.

2% (domestic 10).

2% / International 15.

1%), leading to an increase in load factor by 2.

4pp (domestic 1.

1pp / international 4.

9pp) to 91.


At the same time, the company’s unit passenger kilometer revenue continued to grow steadily, increasing by zero.

7%, we calculated that RASK increased by 3.

4%, the industry’s leading increase.

Fuel cost pressure deviation, unit deduction of fuel costs rose slightly in the company’s operating costs during the reporting period61.

800 million, an increase of 11.

3%, slightly lower than the increase in revenue, driving up the gross profit margin1.

2pp, reaching 13.5%.

Unit operating costs increased by one.

9%, of which the unit deduction of operating costs increased by 2.

8%, mainly due to the increase in takeoff and landing fees and the new budget to increase lease and depreciation fees.

In addition, the ex-factory price of aviation kerosene also decreased by 1 during the reporting period.

9%, fuel cost pressure deviation, fuel cost increased by 9 during the reporting period.


The company’s cost management and control continued, and in the second half of the year, along with the 淡水桑拿网 implementation of civil aviation fund halving and other fee reduction policies, the company’s unit cost showed a downward trend.

The base was cultivated smoothly, and the replenishment of routes reduced the company’s replenishment.

1 billion, down from 0 previously.

700 million, or because more capacity was put into at least high-quality routes during the reporting period, and the base construction was smooth, the passenger-kilometer revenue of the seven major bases except the newly established base in Lanzhou has been comprehensively improved, reducing compensation.

In addition, the base period of advance payment subsidy increased by 2.

300 million, or with the replenishment of related maritime capacity, the replenishment of routes will pick up.

Adjust target price range 52.


24 yuan, maintaining 北京桑拿洗浴保健 the “buy” rating. Against the background of the overall weak demand in the industry, Spring Airlines can still record a significant increase in RASK, reflecting the company’s good level of refined management.

Optimistic about the company’s ability to resist disturbances and adjust its 2019E / 20E / 21E annual net profit forecast values based on semi-annual results.

1% / 6.

7% / 5.

6% to 20.



3 billion.

Reference company estimated multiples in the past 3 years (mean 3).

3x PB), maintaining 3.


4x 2019PB (BPS forecast for 2019 is 16.

54 yuan), adjust the target price range 52.


24 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: Oil prices continue to increase, RMB appreciation, high-speed rail speedup, economic growth trends, major epidemics or natural disasters, substitutions surpassing expectations, and peak-time growth is not up to expectations.


Huashu Media (000156): Marketization and innovation-leading distance education attempts to open new business models

Huashu Media (000156): Marketization and innovation-leading distance education attempts to open new business models

Hangzhou is a radio and television company with high marketization and innovation.

The company is a high-quality digital TV and new media company affiliated to Huashu Group. It is mainly engaged in cable TV business and broadband business in Hangzhou area, new media business nationwide, and smart city business (the business scale accounts for 1/3 each), forming interactive TV and mobile phones.TV, OTT and Internet audiovisual program services have a multi-dimensional and integrated media matrix, and their marketization and innovation are ahead of other radio and television companies in the sector.

In response to national policies, the company actively promoted the integration of provinces and networks. According to the announcement, in October 2019, major asset reorganizations will acquire Zhejiang Huashu and Ningbo Huashu’s equity. If the acquisition is completed, the average value of the main broadcast and television network assets in Zhejiang will be included in the listing except for a few regionsThe company has made a big step towards the final integration of the State Grid.

In terms of new media business, the company’s OTT business is leading the industry, and its business scope includes integrated broadcast control and content services. Cooperating terminal manufacturers include Sky Magic Box, Xiaomi, LG, Skyworth, LeTV, Sony, Hisense, Samsung, etc., and the scale of OTT terminal coverage exceeds100 million units with more than 80 million on-demand users (data source: company announcement).

Take advantage of content and respond to policy layout of distance education.

Military companies integrate product integration into smart campuses, including educational video resources of more than 30,000 episodes, covering adolescents and children of all ages.

Introduce the company to melt the advantages of media channels. Before the epidemic, 杭州桑拿网 the company started interactive TV business. It provided interactive TV platforms for primary and secondary schools within the scope of services and supported online teaching. (Parents can follow their children’s school dynamics through this platform. Schools can release information andTeaching).

In the epidemic phase, the company “suspended school without stopping” means that the company provides a communication platform, the education department intervenes and provides instructional video content, responds to government calls, and resolves parental intervention.

According to the official public account, the company broadcasts the Hangzhou Education Bureau course during the outbreak of the epidemic. Students can learn through TV (Hua Shu TV 4K, HD STB), mobile phone (Hua Shu TV App), and computer (Hua Shu TV Network).
重庆耍耍网We expect that the distance education model established during the epidemic period is expected to land quickly and will gradually evolve into one of the company’s new performance growth points in the future.

Investment suggestion: The company’s marketization and innovation are ahead of its peers. The scale of OTT business coverage nationwide is obvious. The merged company has gradually melted the advantages of media and deployed interactive learning platforms (including large screens, mobile phones, and PCs).

The forthcoming epidemic company responds to the call, addresses parental priorities, develops new businesses in advance, and may evolve into a business model that leads to performance growth in the future.

We expect the company to achieve net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021.

4.5 billion, 7.

7.4 billion, 8.

51 trillion, corresponding to 0 EPS.

42 yuan, 0.

50 yuan, 0.

55 yuan.

Given that broadcasting and television have short MCNs, long-distance education logic, long-term 5G commercialization, and national network integration logic, we give a certain estimated premium, giving 30 times in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 16.

2 yuan, the first coverage is given a “buy-A” grade.

Risk reminder: The distance education business model advances less than expected, competition is stronger than expected, and main businesses such as cable TV exceed risks such as exceeding expectations.


28th Funding Plan-The main fund invested 21.5 billion Longhu Ranking institutions grab 6 shares

28th Fund Scheduling: The main funds invested in 21.5 billion Longhu ranking institutions grab 6 shares

[Plan for Funding on the 28th]The main funds with a net amount of more than 21.5 billion on the Dragon and Tiger Rankings rushed to raise 6 shares. Source: Securities Times. On August 28, A shares oscillated and the market closed. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.

29% to 2893.

At 76 points, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 0.

31%, at 9414 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.

18% at 1625.

19 o’clock.

The total turnover of the two cities was 4,936.

3.6 billion yuan, down 646 from the previous trading day.

3.9 billion yuan.

  1 The net capital of the two cities throughout the day exceeded 21.5 billion. Today, the main capital of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities opened 121 net inflows.

4.4 billion, a net decrease of 19 late.

9.3 billion, a net reduction of 21.5 billion in capital throughout the day.

  2 Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 today’s main fund net replacement of 104.

4.8 billion CSI 300 today ‘s net replacement of 104 main funds.

4.8 billion, GEM net reduction of 26.

US $ 4.5 billion, a small net decrease of 48 for small and medium-sized boards.

4.1 billion.

Net share value of Shanghai Stock Connect 1.

南京夜生活网13 trillion, Shenzhen Stock Connect net reduction of 3.

03 trillion (here the China-Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect net net amount is based on the amount used on the day, which is slightly different from the net purchase amount of the transaction, but the meaning is generally the same).

  3 Net inflow of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing 22.

Among the first 28 Shenwan first-class industries with 200 million yuan, 4 industries achieved net capital inflows, of which 22 were inflows from the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries.

200 million.

  4 Pig industry concept net inflow 17.

In terms of the 8 trillion yuan in the first concept section, today’s pig industry, anti-tariff, swine fever vaccine and other concept sections show a net inflow of funds, including the pig industry concept of net inflows.

800 million.

  5 Zhengbang Technology’s main capital inflows 5.

4.6 billion (Note: The main force of net inflow statistics in this table is different from the net purchase statistics of the institutions in the previous table and the next table).The data showed that the institution appeared 14 shares, of which 6 shares of Starnet Ruijie showed a net purchase of institutional funds, and 8 shares of Zhengbang Technology showed a net sale of institutional funds.

  7The top ten active stocks of Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect today


Sany Heavy Industry (600031): The first quarterly report of 2019 is in line with expectations. The quality of operations continues to improve and continues to solidify.

Sany Heavy Industry (600031): The first quarterly report of 2019 is in line with expectations. The quality of operations continues to improve and continues to solidify.

Event: Sany Heavy Industry released the first quarter of 2019 report on April 28, 2019, and achieved operating income of 212.

950,000 yuan, +75 a year.

14%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

21 trillion, +114 a year.


Opinion: The first quarter report of 2019 was in line with expectations, and the company’s operating quality continued to improve.

Excessive profit release: In Q1 2019, 淡水桑拿网 the company achieved revenue of 212.

950,000 yuan (+75 for the whole year.

14%), net profit attributable to mother 32.

21 trillion (ten years +114.

71%), deducting non-net profit 31.

50,000 yuan (+150 a year.

05%), profits far exceed revenue growth, once again verifying our expectations of performance elasticity.

Increased profitability: 2019Q1, the company’s gross sales margin, net profit margin, and period expense ratio were 30.

72% / 15.

61% / 11.

98% a year -1.

20 / + 2.

84 / -5.

60pct, ring than +1.

60 / + 7.

21 / -0.

30pct, product sales structure and industry price competition will definitely affect the company’s gross profit margin; ROE / ROA are 9 respectively.

17% / 4.

22%, ten years +3.

49 / + 1.

68pct, ring ratio +5.

18 / + 2.


Operating quality improvement: In 2019Q1, the company’s accounts receivable, accounts payable, and inventory turnover rate were 0.



31 times, +0 a year.

30 / + 0.

50 / + 0.

29 times, weakened the upstream bargaining power and slightly strengthened the downstream repayment ability; bills receivable and accounts receivable 261.

2.7 billion yuan (+26 per year).

58%), of which accounts receivable 253.8.3 billion (years ago + 26.

58%), the growth rate is much smaller than the growth rate of revenue; operating net cash flow38.

23 ppm, +47 a year.

49%, +113.


The demand for construction machinery is still relatively optimistic in 2019, and the leaders are expected to fully benefit.

The overall demand far exceeded the previous round: in the first quarter of 2019, the growth rate of completed infrastructure / real estate fixed asset investment quotas increased by 2 each year.

95% / 11.

40%, +1 respectively compared with the whole year of 2018.

16 / + 3.

30pct, infrastructure and real estate investment rebounded at a high level, providing stable support for total demand in 2019.

Renewal is still at a high point: According to our increment, the launch of mobile cranes and concrete pump trucks will reach the peak of renewal demand in 2019. Excavators will continue to expand the renewal demand in 2019 and will effectively support the growth of new machine demand.

Sales volume is expected to continue to grow: the transition to environmental protection standards and the expansion of application scenarios have effectively strengthened the need for updates and scale expansion. It is expected that the sales growth rate of excavators / car cranes / concrete pump trucks will be +0% / + 20% / + 25%.

The comprehensive competitiveness of Sany products has been continuously improved, and the revenue is expected to continue to exceed that of the industry.

In Q1 2019, the sales volume of Sany small, medium and large digs were 12053/3214/2391 units, +57% / + 61% / + 27% year-on-year, and the domestic market share was 27.

95% / 18.

44% / 27.

23%, +5 for ten years.

52 / + 3.

79 / + 3.

78pct, +3.

36 / + 2.

17 / + 5.

23pct; the sales volume of truck cranes is 3187 units, + 121% per year, and the market share is reset 25.

67%, ten years +5.

95pct, ring than -1.


The market competitiveness of Sany products has been continuously improved, gradually changing from the “price + service” advantage to the “performance + service” advantage. The internal leader of the excavator has been gradually consolidated. The truck crane has achieved rapid catch-up.Sales revenue is expected to continue to exceed industry growth.

Estimates and ratings: Maintain the “overweight” rating.

The company is a leader in the domestic construction machinery industry. The listed company has complete in-body concrete equipment, excavator and crane product lines. The industry boom expands with its own interaction to increase resonance and determine high performance. The overseas layout has entered the harvest period, and global operations have promoted performance stability.
Maintain the profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve a net profit ratio of 86% in 2019/2020/2021.



200,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS1.



81 yuan, corresponding to PE11 / 14/15 times.

Considering that the company has a strong alpha attribute in the industry, there is only room for overseas expansion, giving 13 times PE in 2019 and a target price of 13.

52 yuan, corresponding to about 13% growth space.


Guangxun Technology (002281): Three quarterly report on revenue growth speeds up, expects 5G, self-developed chip power

Guangxun Technology (002281): Three quarterly report on revenue growth speeds up, expects 5G, self-developed chip power

Event: On October 26th, Nikko Technology released three quarterly reports, with revenue of 3.9 billion yuan (+ 6%) in the first three quarters, and net profit attributable to the mother 2.

7 ppm (+ 1%); gross profit margin 19.

84% (+1.


The single Q3 revenue was 1.4 billion (+ 16%), which was attributed to the mother’s net profit1.

200 million (-2%), with a gross profit margin of 20.

58% (-2.


Single quarter revenue growth accelerated and net profit remained stable.

From Q1 of 2018 to Q3 of 19, the company’s revenue growth rates were -5%, + 9%, + 21%, + 10%, + 1%, + 3% and + 16%; the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was-19%, -18%, + 55%, -16%, -18%, + 30% and -2%.

In Q3’18, the company’s revenue / profit grew rapidly, with a relatively high base. However, in Q3’19, the company’s revenue grew faster than Q1 and Q2. At the same time, the net profit attributable to the parent in the single quarter was the same as Q3’18.

Continue to invest in research and development, and look forward to chip power.

The company’s R & D expenses in the first three quarters3.

11 ppm (+ 10%); single Q3 R & D expense1.

3.4 billion (+ 28%).

In the first half of the year, the company made phased progress in various 25Gb / s rate semiconductor inverter chips for 5G, data center and other applications; for 5G fronthaul (wireless access layer), middle backhaul (aggregation layer + core network) and other scenariosOptical transceiver modules achieve full model coverage; 400Gb / s high-speed optical transceiver modules for data centers have completed prototype development; 400G multi-mode COB platform process capability construction is completed, small batch delivery capabilities are integrated, and single-mode 8-channel COB process platform construction is completed.

Advance receipts / payments have increased significantly, and 5G brings new opportunities.

The company’s prepayments for the third quarter 1.

40,000 yuan (+ 205%), 0 donations received in advance.

8.2 billion (+ 731%).

With the rapid advancement of 5G commercialization, we believe that the company’s passive WDM, fronthaul, and mid-backhaul products will help to fully benefit and strongly promote the company’s business growth.

Give a “first-tier market” rating.

What do we expect 苏州桑拿网 in 2019?
The company’s revenue will be 58 in 2021.

3.9 billion, 67.

6 billion, 79.

4.5 billion, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 3.

9.8 billion, 5.

4.3 billion, 7.

42 trillion, EPS is 0.

59 yuan, 0.

80 yuan, 1.

10 yuan.

With reference to industry and historical estimates, the 2019 PE range is 45-55x, which corresponds to a 6-month reasonable value range of 26.


45 yuan, given a “preliminary market” rating.

risk warning.

Domestic demand fell short of expectations, progress in 25G optical chips exceeded expectations, and trade frictions affected.


Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630): Volume increase but price decrease but performance remains relatively stable

Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630): Volume increase but price decrease but performance remains relatively stable
Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019 and achieved operating income of 468 in the first half of the year.600 million, an increase of 15 every year.09%; net profit attributable to mother 4西安耍耍网 .14 ppm, an increase of 0 per year.18%. Opinions: 1. Increasing output is inferior to the price drop, and the profit of the copper business is significantly reduced: the single quarter revenue in the second quarter was the highest in the past 16 months, but the net profit in the single quarter decreased by 52% month-on-month and even fell by 36%.Looking at the gross profit by business, although by-products such as gold increased by 19% and by-products such as sulfuric acid increased by 20%, the largest proportion of cathode copper gross profit decreased by 23%, driving down the overall gross profit margin.1 up to 4.15%.The reason is that copper processing fees have continued to be sluggish, and spot TCs have been 93 since the end of 2018.US $ 5 / dry ton unilaterally fell to the current 7-year low of US $ 53 / dry ton, so even the company’s output increased by 8.84%, but performance is still down. 2. The adverse effect of the decrease in the period’s expenses and the decrease in the gross profit: the increase in operating response in the first half of the year resulted in the company’s net operating cash flow.At least 6.4 billion US dollars, with at least an increase in improvement, can also significantly reduce the company’s financial costs1.8.5 billion (or down 29%).Taken together, the expense ratio was only 2 during the first half of the year.25%, reducing by 0 every year.54 units, doubled by one in absolute volume.900 million, effectively hedged the negative impact of reduced gross profit. 3. The expected performance is still stable: The company’s July and Antofagasta copper mine supply long-term orders set by the first half of 2020, the TC is about 65 US dollars, which is far lower than the long-term unit price in 2019, highlighting that the smelting-end capacity growth rate exceededMuch more than copper.The current global trade budget is severe and the risk of economic growth is increasing. If the prices of by-products such as sulfate continue to fall, the profits of smelting companies may still be further eroded.However, the relatively 杭州桑拿网favorable factor lies in the current demand or has bottomed out. The recovery of China ‘s real estate completion data and the automobile stimulus policies can still be expected to drive copper consumption; the prices of by-products such as expensive metals are in a trending upward cycle, which can make up for some of the profit decline.We expect net profit attributable to mothers from 2019-2021.31/9.44/10.4.5 billion, EPS is 0.08/0.09/0.10 yuan to maintain the overweight level. 5. Risk warning: Copper prices and processing fees change, demand is less than expected